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When you think of draft busts, the name “Ryan Leaf” might come to mind.And indeed the Chargers’ second overall selection in 1998 is the worst pick by any team since 1996, producing just one AV against an expected AV of 42.But Ryan had an expected AV of 40 as the third overall selection, while Sherman, taken 154th, was expected to gain just 7.Both were great picks, but Sherman's 65 AV gap makes him a Once you account for the picks they had, the 20 Seattle draft classes look even better.But bad draft classes are a group effort, and we calculate that New England’s 1998 haul was even worse.The 1998 Patriots had 10 picks, including two first-rounders, two second-rounders and two third-rounders.They used the 18th overall on running back Robert Edwards, who rushed for over 1,000 yards his first year before blowing out his knee playing rookie flag football during Pro Bowl week.Even worse, the team’s 54th, 81st, 115th, 145th, 176th and 211st overall selections barely played, combining for just 3 AV over five years.
The 1999 New Orleans Saints used their only selection (No.
5 overall) on running back Ricky Williams, who gained 59 AV in his first five years. 5 pick to gain 37 AV, so the Saints come out ahead.
But the team famously traded the 12th, 71st, 107th, 144th, 179th and 218th picks (plus what became the 2nd and 64th picks in 2000) to move up to No. Taken together, those picks had an expected AV of 133, an insane value that Williams (or any other single player) couldn’t live up to.
It’s also impossible for any metric, AV included, to completely separate individual performance from team performance in the NFL.
So you have a chicken/egg problem: Do the Browns have a lot of low AV players because they drafted bad players, or do those players have a low AV because they played for the Browns?